Thursday, February 28, 2013

Spain's international balances on a roll

Sorry for the absence... that time of year.

December current account balance at an all-time record surplus of 4.9 billion euros. For 2012 in its entirety, the deficit improved to around 0.8% of GDP.

Spain's international trade balance, calculated on a 12-month basis, continues to set new records. As of year-end 2012, it now stands at positive, 14.65 billion euros.

The income account continues to show the effects of all that repatriation of government debt that was sponsored by the ECB's 3-year LTRO programs. One might expect this to reverse over the coming months as foreign term holdings of Spanish bonds have recuperated to summer 2011 levels. On an annual basis, there is no expectation of it becoming positive in the foreseeable future.

The remaining current transfers account also came up heads. That's typical of both November and December, with the month of February (for whatever reason) usually seeing a notable reversal in this figure.

Still predicting a 12-month current account surplus by this summer.


No comments: