Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Job Opening

One of the oft-repeated reasons that Banco Santander finds itself trading at a price that offers the investor an 8 percent dividend yield is that it holds an inordinate amount of Portuguese government debt and would, hence, be hit hard by any kind of default by that country.

With the help of this Deutsche Bank chart recently published by FT Alphaville, we can track the share performance of various European banks over the last 6 months against their exposure to Greek, Irish and Portuguese debt - this as a percentage of their tangible book values.

Two banks, Dexia and Commerzbank, are effectively bankrupt if push comes to shove. Respectively, their shares change hands at 20 and 17 percent below last July's levels. Four banks - SocGen, RBS, Credit Agricole and Santander - would take an earnings hit from their 10 to 15 percent exposure. The two French banks have appreciated about 1 percent over the period. RBS has gained around 40 percent and the outlier, Santander, has shed about a quarter of its value. The worst bruised of all is BBVA, whose mere 3.7 percent exposure has been rewarded with a 27 percent drubbing in half a year.

Ibex Salad is looking for a qualified logician and analyst. The interested may apply in the comments section. Of course, picking a couple of winners from the list might remove candidates from the job market entirely.

As a most interesting side note, the Wall Street Journal this morning published an article, entitled Spain Moves to Clean Up Cajas, which clearly lays out some actual facts from this side of the reality gap. It's short. But if readers are pressed for time, the last two paragraphs are essential.

Let us know if it's behind a paywall.

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8 Comments:

kikezurita@yahoo.com said...

¿Para cuándo este magnífico blog en Twitter?

Charles Butler said...

Muchas gracias desde mi corazón. Pero no tengo tiempo para eso, Quique.

Kikezurita me parece ejemplar de todos modos. No se como, pero has conseguido que no te invadieran los creyentes de los varios Templos de la Verdadera Verdad.

Intentaré contribuir de vez en cuando.

Un abrazo,

CB

Anonymous said...

Um, it isn't their exposure to Portugese debt that is the problem. It is their exposure to PIIG and yes, S. I would humbly suggest that Santander has more S than RBS does...

tax lien investing said...

This is not a good outlook for the European market as a whole.

Charles Butler said...

Anon,

You're right. But I'd venture that DB's omission of that is all we really need to know about the issue.

Lola said...

Olá,
Obrigada pela visita no meu site: www.conscienciacoletiva.com.br. Devido a sua criatividade para chamar até seu site, resolvi passar por aqui. :)

Abraço,
Lola...

Anonymous said...

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/01/17/460776/more-spanish-banking-negativity/

Anonymous said...

and more general bad stuff about BBVA and Santander: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/01/19/463226/even-more-spanish-banking-negativity/#comments