Monday, November 29, 2010

Ibex Salad, Qorreo & Sovereign Debt

The editors of Qorreo, that excellent purveyor of English-language background on Spain, have been kind enough to publish our take on the current version of the eurozone debt crisis.

Readers can take a look by clicking on the image on the left...

...or here.

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Ibex Salad regularly updated features...

Sunday, November 28, 2010

Yield Anyone?

As Banco Santander takes another run at its June low of 7.12 euros, an interesting item appears in yesterday's online edition of Expansión.

Having apparently passed on receiving the November dividend due his holdings in the bank over which he presides in the form of 984,000 newly minted shares worth 9.2 million at that date's market price of 9.28, Santander CEO Emilio Botín this week purchased, in mid-tanking, approximately 2 million at an average price of 7.58 euros.

The presumably untouchable 60 cent dividend turns 7.9 percent.


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Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Fat Fingers

The chart on the left (grabbed from Bloomberg) shows today's price action for the Spanish 10-year bond. Anotated with the letter A is 10:07 London time - the moment at which FT Alphaville announced that today's auction of 3- and 6-month paper had fallen short of clearing the '4-5 billion' on offer - in fact settling for 3.26 billion.

The problem with all this is that the Tesoro actually was looking to sell 3 to 4 billion, but apparently a typographical error (or evilly planted wake up call for the country's lead idiot) on their English website stated the erroneous figure that led to the conclusion that the auction had, to some degree, failed.

Knowing that correlation is not causation, it nonetheless was a less than propitious moment in time.

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Ibex Salad regularly updated features...

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Department of Unintended Consequences


Digging a bit further into a tip provided by the really good Spanish financial news source, Capital Madrid, we've come across a rather odd ambivalence on the part of the Banco de España with regards to the reporting of non-performing loans on the books of Spain's financial institutions.

Fruit of the March 2009 seizure of Caja Castilla-La Mancha, its subsequent sale to Cajastur and the later transformation of its sanitized remnants into an actual bank, the press release announcing the September 30th inauguration of Banco CCM included this line (referring to the consolidated Grupo Cajastur):

The default rate, taking into account the Asset Protection Scheme, is 2.39%, one of the lowest in the sector.

That the BdE is permitting these newly formed entities to state their bad loan ratios ex-bad loans is not surprising. That is the purpose of the five-year convertible loans doled out by the bank rescue fund known as the FROB. However, the banking watchdog's own monthly reports continue to include them - causing at least a touch of collateral public relations damage to the country's existing banks.

The chart at the beginning of this piece shows the change in the delinquency landscape attendant upon the incorporation of Banco CCM. Suddenly, and a direct result of the 12 percent default rate that caused CCM to be taken over, Spain's banks - models (we suppose) of relative sobriety - have hurdled past the cajas with respect to non-performing loans.

The reader might anticipate what the usual lot of headline chasers are going to make of the situation when the also-intervened CajaSur is reborn as BBK Bank and its stock of garbage loans gets passed from its rightful place into the realm inhabited by Banco Santander, BBVA and so on. That the remaining cajas de ahorros will end up appearing to be pristine examples of sound business judgment should not be permitted to fool anyone - at least until they prove their mettle in the post-bubble world.

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Ibex Salad regularly updated features...

Sunday, November 14, 2010

September Home Sales

The pundits were right. September home closings via Spanish property registries - almost all reflecting sales made following the one point increase in the applicable sales tax - tanked with respect to August.

Up next?

Buyers with incomes of over 24,000 euros transacting after December 31 will no longer be able to claim the home ownership deduction on their income tax returns.




















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Ibex Salad regularly updated features...

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Perplexed

The writer finds himself more than a little puzzled by the continued lack of excitement being generated by the recent trajectory of Irish government debt. Briefly, Bloomberg is currently quoting the yield on the 10-year at 8.63% and the 3-year at 7.57 - 257 bps above the rate that the country can borrow (as Greece did) for the same term from the EFSF.

Not that the it's going totally unnoticed, but we'd suggest that the probability of a fat tail event taking place is inversely proportional to the attention such a possibility receives from the press and blogosphere - meaning that if the reader thought he or she should run for cover last spring, this might be the moment to actually do it.

An Irish debt restructuring in one form or another is absolutely imminent. We believe that this will not be as tender and loving an affair as that enjoyed by Greece.

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Ibex Salad regularly updated features...

Sunday, November 07, 2010

Read it Here First

Leading off a Sunday afternoon article on the nuclear waste protests in Germany, expansion.com treats us to the headline seen on the left.

In English...

China assures that it will assist Portugal in exiting the crisis'.'


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Ibex Salad regularly updated features...

Saturday, November 06, 2010

Still Missing the Point

The reader should make no mistake about it. That he presided over the taking of swift action in the face of last spring's bond market upheaval does in no way changes that the two defining characteristics of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero's presidency over the course of the current crisis are captured by the words, incomprehension and denial. That he might believe that he has now survived all the trials by fire that life might put him to comes via an item at idealista.com...

The Zapatero-Espinosa family has decided to put up for sale their house in El Mirador de Vera (Almería) three years after purchasing it. According to sources, Zapatero, who recently confirmed that housing prices in Spain had reached their bottom, it is priced similarly to that at which it was purchased (440,000 euros) despite the fall in home prices and that there are similar advertised at idealista.com at between 330,000 and 345,000 euros, 25 percent less.

Perhaps the short trip that the Spanish 10-year debt benchmark spread took above 200 bps on Friday will serve as a convenient reminder that the test is not over and the country is not, magically, going to find itself in 2007 one fine morning - and he'll stop threatening to backslide, as he has been recently, on what are already insufficient reforms.

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Ibex Salad regularly updated features...

Thursday, November 04, 2010

Pure Serendipity

At the same time that we were posting our previous entry, the there-mentioned Macro Man actually deals with the eurozone sovereign debt issue.

The GSE-iPIGS(!) analogy is a keeper, as is the Bundeathstar.

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Ibex Salad regularly updated features...

No News is Good News?

The unfailingly brilliant - despite the disappearance of its founder - Macro Man made the point last July that the cheapest way to play eurozone sovereign risk was through the FX markets, popping up this Bloomberg chart of the Spain 10-year/bund spread and EUR/USD to prove the point. This is no longer the case.

Recent yield increases in Portuguese, Irish and Greek debt finally started to spill over onto the Spanish version last week. Accompanied by a remarkable degree of press silence (how does one link to a non-existent item?)*, the 10-year is currently dishing out 4.30 percent-plus and the spread to the German item has widened from 160 to 190 bps in short order. The euro, meantime, today is managing a 10-month high against the buck.

*We'd be prone to concluding that the main information to be found in any one medium would mostly consist of what the rest of their cohorts presently consider to be such. This is the same relationship that gossip has to fact.

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Ibex Salad regularly updated features...