Not referring to the 25 percent year-on-year increase in volumes, sales of new homes reached a minor milestone in August. They were the highest since October of 2008 - the last month to reflect transactions made before the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Most commentators are saying that these sales reflect June closings pulled forward in advance of the July 1st increase in the applicable sales tax. Probably true, this will become evident in September - a month which normally sees more new deeds come out of the property registries than August.
As an interesting side note, it was brought to our attention that the International Monetary Fund is the first to abandon the Spanish housing universal constant of 1 million unsold new homes. An assessment published in July (pdf, p.12) places this number at 700,000.----------------------------
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4 Comments:
Nothing to say about the 1st home tax deduction expiring next december? that equals up to 1800+1800 eur annually for a couple during the lifetime of the mortgage. So it is a very good reason to buy before december!
Are you sure it's that much money? Regardless, if they're smart they'll announce that the plan has been postponed in December.
So at what monthly average will the new homes sales plateau out? If you were selling 450,000 used and 325,000 new homes in early 2008, and now you are selling about 500,000 between both (am I reading the chart correctly?), it doesnt seem it would take long to go through inventory.
How many new homes are being built?
I´m surprised used home sales aren´t exceeding new home sales.
BTW, your blog is banned in China. Tried to get my Ibex Salad fix but alas, you are on the banned list.
Banned in China? isn't there someone we can speak to?
It's about 450,000 over the last 12 months. They could live with that if they were taking place in the places that are overbuilt. But no. Somebody said to expect 100,000 completions this year, but I don't know.
I think the high number of used sales back then reflected the flipping of properties and the purchase of old places by builders for the land they sat on. A good portion is not real housing demand.
As for when, depends totally on location. From the guest room window at by brother in-law's (overlooking Hortaleza in Madrid), two weeks ago you could see five working construction cranes within about a kilometre.
The coast is another matter. But I noticed that a large British real estate chain has just listed 3,000 debt-for-equity places belonging to CAM. So there must be some signs of life.
Cheers
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