This stuff becomes less interesting with the passage of time - and the failure to appear of that inevitable crash - but here are the June residential mortgage issuance graphs for Spain.Perhaps worth noting is the slight downward move in the 12-month averages of both numbers of mortgages and total amount loaned. The reader might note that one of the two upward spikes in activity in 2009 has fallen off the series - leaving the plunge that accompanied credit market doubts later that year in its place. This, in turn, was followed by another surge after the summer. When that one (and the fall that ensued disappears - in three or four months, we might be looking at a positive slope for these lines. Volatility leaves a legacy of false signals.
Marginally interesting, also, is the continued recovery in average amount loaned, although we'd hesitate to interpret this as an indication of improved housing prices.
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5 Comments:
Sir Charles - can you define what a crash would mean to YOU? IOW, define "crash".
I´ve had a few discussions with persons related to the industry and others not related directly (i.e.banking). Some consider the crash as "already occurred" (normally from those related to the industry) and others consider the crash as just beginning to show itself.
Within my own experience... how about 50% top to bottom for residential and 12 or 13 full years before 1989 buyers broke even - not counting inflation. Or... a 78 storey office tower, fully occupied in the mid-80's, sold for 35 cents on the loan dollar a few years later.
Anyway, I demure to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. As long as he thinks it hasn't happened, who am I to argue? We can let him be the arbiter.
Cheers
The crash is 20% unemployment. It has already happened. The banks are killing the construction industry by not selling off their properties for 25% of their "book" value like they should, to get rid of them. Franco still rules - until the real revolution takes place!
Dick - 20% unemployment my arsh. My nannys husband is on "unemployment" but still works. My gardener is still on "unemployment" (i think) but works a few hours at my house, and a few others around the neighborhood. This has been the spanish way for decades.
Charles - so if that is a crash, then clearly Spain real estate has not crashed but merely "adjusted".
Nice site about mortgage related.
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