Sunday, May 30, 2010

Export Anomaly

It's often thought that the best way to deal with anomalous data points in a series is to label them "outliers" and ignore them completely. Removing thus the 16.3 billion euro April 2008 spike in Spanish exports we find that the three highest historical levels for this measure of activity are (inflation-adjusted):

Sep 2008 14.98 billion
Jan 2008 14.93 billion
Mar 2010 14.81 million

Not including negative items like unemployment, this item is (strangely given that Spain's principal problem is lack of international competitiveness) possibly the only one currently hovering near historic maxima.

Explanations invited in the comments section.

Balance of trade, by the way is at levels, although decidedly negative, not seen since summer of 2004.

Charts courtesy Extra Lettuce.



bsanchez said...

I was looking at the figures here and if you open the Sector Exterior pdf there are some suggestive charts (page 16) that do not provide an answer to the question you pose but do give a couple of hints:

(1) it is more to do with the volumes of exports going up (rather than prices, which are still quite depressed);

(2) it is about capital goods and, particularly, intermediate goods (rather than consumer good exports).

It would be interesting to get a further breakdown to see what exactly is contained within intermediate goods and what it is that is booming (or is someone having a huge firesale?).

One final thing to be aware of: these are goods exports - they are based on customs data. But full current account breakdown to March including services are out tomorrow @

Charles Butler said...

Thanks, b.