One of the things to which innocent foreigners in Spain must learn to adapt, even if they have gone to the trouble of making themselves fluent in the language, is the often very tenuous relationship that words here have with the reality they are intended to depict. To haul out an example from the overmuch-parodied Iberian attitude towards time, the reader might consider the expression, ahora después. Literally, and unambiguously, translated in to English as 'now later', the speaker uses it to give the listener assurances concerning when a certain event (for example, the repair of a broken water pipe) will take place. Noting that the construct gives its user a tremendous amount of leeway before he could rightly be judged as an incompetent and devious prick, one could easily interpret this as being a self-serving lie but, because of the pervasiveness of these verbal inventions in Spanish usage, we doubt that this kind of cynicism is actually warranted. What imaginable advantage to its utterer is offered by telling someone, for example, to carry and place something to the sysiphean location, payá pacá (transliterated, no point in looking it up or commenting on our spelling) - 'over here, over there'?On the other hand, one would be a fool not to ascribe evil intent to the fairly widespread Spanish belief that 'unemployed' and 'working' are not mutually annulling states.
In this regard, both aficionados and professionals of the now wildly popular blood sport, macro-economics, will have noted with some glee that the unemployment rate in Spain has recently managed to make it to the 13% level and, better still for those looking for divine justice on the Costa del Sol, nearly 19% in Andalucía. Quite obviously at levels that echo the Great Depression, this latter figure is up from the 2006 record low of 11% - we repeat, 2006 record low of 11% - occuring in a year in which (if we recall) it was estimated that 350,000 foreigners, being a number almost equal to the unemployment rate itself, were also labouring in the sunny south. The question concerning how 11% unemployment translates to full cannot help but pose itself.
The answer, oddly given the introduction to this piece, lies in the Andalusian trick of being rich and poor at the same time, and the effect this has on electoral politics and the region's relationship with the European Union. In the first case, Andalucía has found itself governed by the same political party and the identical president for almost the entirety of its democratic history - despite the fact that the PSOE is categorically not the people's choice in most of the provincial capitols. Power is won through the overpopulated rural towns and the best way to ensure that this continues is to not force country folk to look for work in the city. The political policy that accomplishes this feat is the non-enforcement of laws governing the receipt of unemployment benefits - particularly that peculiarly ill-conceived one that says that if one is working one is not eligible. Votes paid for and delivered thus, the Junta de Andalucía can now turn its attentions to Brussels, flashing its credentials as an officially disadvantaged region on the basis of this untreatable lack of jobs to bring home the subsidy bacon - later to be reconstituted to its original raw pork, thrown in a barrel, and distributed amongst the hungry faithful.
A more realistic look at the unemployment rate might have placed it at something along the line of 4% (an acceptable full employment figure, we think) in 2006. And currently? If it is any indication, the present olive harvest in this part of Andalucía is more than ever in the hands of immigrant labour, of which there is a huge surplus seeing as what is left of the under-the-table positions that they occupied in the boom are being taken by some not inconsiderable percentage of the recently dismissed Spanish workers.
One would be less than rigorous if he or she were to assume that this scenario is not replicated to one degree or another throughout the country. After all, even in the good times, the underground economy was thought to be 25% of the official.
And one more doubt... the graph at the top of the page shows the raw unemployment numbers for the agricultural sector from 2004 to the present. The red line at the top represents 2008. Was there a drought that we missed, did people stop eating - or did somebody inadvertantly open the hotcold spigot?
Chart courtesy INEM.
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4 Comments:
Charles,
Beautiful prose. Am not too sure about your argument though. Are you really saying that real unemployment is a lower than the official figures suggest?
I am sure that there is a lot of fraud as far as receipt of benefits goes and that is why most people look suspiciously at the official registered unemployment benefit claimant figures.
Eurostat uses the results from the Labour Force Survey (Encuesta de Población Activa in Spanish) to produce its comparable estimates of unemployment. The definition of unemployment used for the EPA has nothing to do with benefits being claimed. One is clasified as unemployed if (1) they are not working; (2) they have looked for work in the last two (or four?) weeks; and (3) they are available to start work almost immediately (I think also within two weeks).
The unemployment RATE figures (ie the 13%) generally quoted comes from the EPA, which in the case of Spain yields figures that are very close to the official registered unemployment figure.
Incidentally, I think the EPA also shows that Spain has the lowest employment rate in the OECD. And no, it isn't necessarily true that if you have high unemployment you have low employment levels, because there is a further category: the economically inactive population, who are not working and are not looking or ready to work. The level of inactivity in Spain is extremely high.
Now, the big question is how reliable the EPA is. I hope that the national statisticians are doing their job properly and providing assurances that the survey responses are totally confidential and will not be used for the purpose of tracking benefit cheats. As a result I also hope the EPA provides reliable estimates of unemployment, employment and inactivity levels. I could well be wrong.
Because it is a survey the EPA results always come weeks after the release of paro registrado y afiliación a la seguridad social, and basically tell the same story at an aggregate level. Am not sure whether anyone has been paying much attention to it in Spain (the quarterly release from INE is particularly tedious to read).
But the data is a lot richer than stats on paro registrado and afiliación, so I intend to post a piece analysing the Q4 2008 figures which will be released on 23 Jan.
Apologies for long comment. Hope it is useful.
Hi,
That is all true, but an easy assumption to make would be that a person who is being paid unemployment benefits is going to answer that he's unemployed to the survey. That may or may not be the truth, though. Same goes for anyone with a certain couple of weeks work, even though they are fairly sure they can find more when they're finished.
Málaga was not out of line with the rest of Andalucía at the height of the boom. So my point is that the figures exaggerate the number of unemployed, and I think by a very wide margin.
Thanks for the compliment, and the comment.
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