Tour De Momo

What with trend following day traders and dipster divers having met their match (but not before pissing up the lives of value investors for a very long time), we think it appropriate to take a look at the chances of one Cadel Evans in this year's Tour de France. Currently the morning line favourite at around 3:1, the general bandying about of his name as the 'one to beat' in this year's edition is mostly based on his second place finish, by a mere 23 seconds, in 2007 behind Alberto Contador who, had he not signed with a team that was later not to be 'invited' to participate, would be the closest thing to a lead pipe cinch that a 4,000 kilometre bike race has to offer. Anyway, this writer doesn't, for the moment, buy it.

Evans, popularity among the pundits notwithstanding, is the cycling world's equivalent of the momentum investor - grab on to the rear wheel of the current leader and go for the ride. In the vernacular, he is a wheel sucker. This phrase is about as flattering as it sounds. But he deserves it for his outright refusal to take a pull in any mountain stage that we saw in last year's Tour, and we don't put much faith in his argument that he would have ridden differently if he'd know that Rasmussen was going to get the boot.

Working against Evans are the following:

1). The shortening of the first time trial to a mere 30 km from its usual 50-some. However excellent one might be in this specialty (as he is), it is difficult to separate oneself from the herd in 35 minutes in the saddle.

2). Which of his team mates is going to give him shelter in the Alps and Pyrenees? Silence-Lotto is not stacked with mountain goats. They're from Belgium, after all.

3). There are more than a few riders that feel they have a chance here. Alejandro Valverde, despite doubts as to his personal mettle, is backed by the team that is the direct descendant of the Banesto unit of Perico Delgado and Miguel Indurain and includes 2006 winner (by default), Oscar Pereiro. Denis Menchov will be giving it a go and the team sponsored by CSC-Saxobank has three riders that might catch the attention of Mr. Evans.

4). We imagine that, just as in some other fields of endeavour, there would be genuine interest among certain elements of the peloton that a momentum player not bring home the bacon. So, with the 53 km time trial taking place on the second last day of the race, the game will be to take enough out of Evans in the mountains that the penultimate stage will not be a factor.

5). Last year's second place finished coincided, almost to the day, with the last momo victory holler on Wall Street.

So, who's going to win? Couldn't tell ya, but seeing as Cadel Evans himself has made chalk only for being the 'last man standing' (maybe a bit like crude oil, ahem), let's see if Luxembourger Frank Schleck (CSC-Saxobank) has still got legs after the Australian takes a challenge or ten... second in last year's Giro and we love the team.

*The photo shows Evans (sruggling on the left) being dropped last year by Rasmussen and Contador. Despite the fact that neither of these is racing in 2008, expect to see more of the same.